额尔齐斯河流域年降水量时间序列分析  

Analysis of time series of annual precipitation in Irtysh River Basin

作　　者：李海娟[1,2] 夏自强[1,2] 章洁[2] 张楠[2] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098 [2]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水资源保护》2010年第5期29-32,共4页Water Resources Protection

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(30490235)

摘　　要：分别采用Morlet小波分析法、R/S分析法对额尔齐斯河流域塞米巴拉金斯克、托博尔斯克两站的年降水量资料进行分析。Morlet小波分析结果表明:两站的年降水量变化表现出多个时间尺度的相对丰枯交替特征,并且两站均存在显著的16 a左右的主周期。R/S分析结果表明:两站年降水量存在明显的赫斯特现象,即降水量变化存在着持续性,未来年份降水量可能呈现增多趋势。The series of annual precipitation was analyzed using the Morlet wavelet method and the R/S analysis method at the Semipalatinsk and Tobolsk Station in the Irtysh River Basin.The results of the Morlet wavelet method revealed that the annual precipitations at two representative stations showed the complicated structure of multiple-scale time alternative characteristics of high flow and low flow,and there existed obvious periodic variations with scales of 16 years for annual precipitation.The results of the R/S analysis method showed that there existed the obvious Hurst phenomenon of annual precipitation and the trend of future annual precipitation was increasing.

关 键 词：小波变换 R/S分析法 时间序列 年降水量 额尔齐斯河 

分 类 号：P333.1[天文地球—水文科学]