林地核算模型及其最优林地价格的计算  

Forest accounting model and its optimal forest land prices in China

作　　者：张颖[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《中国水土保持科学》2010年第5期49-54,共6页Science of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目"针对中国的综合环境经济核算实施与建模研究"(07JJD910245);国家林业局林业公益性行业科研专项经费课题"林权改革后森林资源经营的改变对环境的影响及其优化技术研究"(200904003)

摘　　要：为了更好地进行森林资源管理和为林业管理决策服务,在经济控制理论的基础上,收集1990—2007年森林面积、造林面积、森林灾害成灾面积和森林采伐面积等数据,建立林地核算模型,并求出林地最优价格。结果表明:造林面积A(k)和森林面积L(k)回归方程的拟合优度R2=0.916,森林灾害成灾面积C(k)和森林面积L(k)、森林采伐面积F(k)回归方程的拟合优度R2=0.958,森林面积L(k)和采伐面积F(k)回归方程的拟合优度R2=0.998,且具有明显的统计学意义;在林地核算模型的基础上,求出的林地核算的最优价格为0.976万元/hm2;指出现行的核算没有考虑最优价格、政策可控性和森林的特性等问题,因而出现核算价格差别很大,核算不科学等,建议建立我国林地核算模型,并加强基础数据的统计和森林核算最优价格的计算。In order to better carry out the management of forest resources and serve the decision-making process for forest management,this paper has established the accounting model of forest land,and calculated the optimal forest land prices based on the collected data of forest area,afforestation area,forest disaster areas such as forest fires,forest pest and disease area etc.from 1990 to 2007 in China according to the theory of economic cybernetics.The results showed that the regression goodness of fit R2=0.916 for afforestation area A（k） and forest area L（k）,and the regression coefficient R2=0.958 for forest disaster areas C（k）、forest area L（k） and forest logging area F（k） in accounting models of forest land,and the R2=0.998 for forest area L（k） and forest logging area F（k） in regression models,the whole coefficients have statistical significance in those models.Further more,this paper calculated the optimal price of forest land in China were 0.976×104 yuan /hm2 currently based on above accounting models.Finally,the paper also discussed on the forest resources accounting issues,and pointed out that the current accounting does not taking account of the optimal price of forest land,the feasibility of policy control and the characteristics of the forest and so on,with the result that the accounting prices for forest land are quite difference,and the accounting results are not scientific and reasonable.The paper proposed that to establish China＇s forest accounting model,and strengthen basic statistics on forest accounting data,as well as to calculate the optimal price of forest resources accounting in China.

关 键 词：林地 核算模型 最优价格 状态方程 资源管理 中国 

分 类 号：S711[农业科学—林学]