雅砻江上田边坡可靠性蒙特卡洛方法综合运用  

Application of Monte-Carlo Method to Shangtian Landslide's Reliability Analysis

作　　者：赵辉[1,2] 谭跃虎[1] 徐辉 袁泽纲 

机构地区：[1]解放军理工大学工程兵工程学院 [2]解放军78170部队 [3]华东勘察设计院

出　　处：《地下空间与工程学报》2010年第5期938-945,共8页Chinese Journal of Underground Space and Engineering

摘　　要：以雅砻江上田边坡为例,将岩土参数视为输入随机变量,将安全系数作为输出变量,采用蒙特卡洛方法模拟边坡稳定性的统计特性,得到失稳概率、均值安全系数、失稳方量,为下一步风险评价提供基本依据。其中先后运用了BAYES优化法,圆弧法;综合运用了@risk数理统计软件,自编Edit And Run对接程序和GEOSLOP软件。模拟证明本方法计算精确度高,容易掌握,对于类似边坡可靠性评价均有指导意义。Taking the Shangtian landslide on the Yalong River area for example,to use the Monte Carlo method with sampling the rock soil physico-mechanical parameters regarded as importing random samples,and safety factors regarded as exporting samples,a statistic of landslide reliability is carried out in Monte-Carlo way,the probability of stability,averages of safety factor,volumes of slop can be got.We firstly use Bayes method based on statistical analysis of shear strength parameters c and  in sliding zone.In this way,the reliability of landslide control can be improved and optimization design will be realized,secondly the software @ risk,the Edit And Run program and GEOSLOP were used.The computational results are more accurate than those by other ways,and easy to control.

关 键 词：边坡 可靠性分析 蒙特卡洛模拟 

分 类 号：TU457[建筑科学—岩土工程]