地震次生火灾救灾可靠性分析及数值模拟  

Reliability analysis and numerical simulation of disaster relief for post-earthquake fire

作　　者：柳春光[1,2] 张旭丹[2] 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学海岸和近海工程国家重点实验室,辽宁大连116024 [2]大连理工大学土木水利学院,辽宁大连116024

出　　处：《地震工程与工程振动》2010年第5期167-173,共7页Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Dynamics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(50878039);地震行业基金(200808025)

摘　　要：本文通过对地震次生火灾进行数值模拟,首先以单元可靠度作为控制参数,引入了接警时域单元并应用Monte Carlo方法对救灾过程进行可靠性分析,首次提出接警失效率的概念,并给出框架公式。其次文中将地震后网络各单元状态近似看作齐次马尔可夫链过程,估算多种影响下单元可靠度的动态变化及救灾过程可靠性的变化。Through the numerical simulation of post-earthquake fire,by using the element reliability as control parameters,this paper firstly introduces the alert time-domain element and uses the Monte Carlo method for analyzing the reliability of the disaster relief network.We increase the failture rate of alert conception for the first time,and give it a initial formula.Secondly,treating the statements of the network elements after earthquake as a process of homogeneous Markov chain,we estimate the dynamic variation of element reliability under multi-effect and the variation of the reliability for the disaster relief system.

关 键 词：地震次生火灾 接警失效率 网络系统可靠性 

分 类 号：P315.9[天文地球—地震学]