江苏高温热害对水稻的影响及成因分析  

High temperature damage to paddy rice in Jiangsu Province and its cause analysis

作　　者：任义方[1] 高苹[2] 王春乙[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081 [2]江苏省气象台,江苏南京210008

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2010年第5期101-107,共7页Journal of Natural Disasters

摘　　要：为了探究全球气候变暖造成的高温热害导致水稻产量结构变化的规律及其影响程度,以江苏省为例,利用通径分析的方法,分析了夏粮产量与表征热害的3个指标,即最高温度、平均温度和相对湿度等因子的关系,及其对夏粮产量的直接和间接影响。并且通过相关普查方法和滑动相关检验法进行稳定性检验,确定大气环流特征量与水稻高温热害指标间的显著性关系,以分析高温热害发生的环流原因。结果表明:日最高温度≥35℃的日数对水稻穗粒数的影响最为直接,且影响程度最大,日平均温度≥30℃日数主要是间接作用。而对水稻千粒重来说,日相对湿度≤70%的日数影响最为直接,且影响程度最大,日最高温度≥35℃日数主要起间接作用。可通过对前一年11-12月南海副高强度指数的平均值和当年2-3月北美副高面积指数平均值的预报,来提前预测7月下旬至9月上旬≥35℃的高温日数。In order to inquire into the rules of changes and influence of paddy rice output composition caused by high temperature damage as a result of global climate warming,we take Jiangsu Province as an example,using the path analysis method to analysis relationship between the summer grain crops output and the indexes of high temperature including the factor of maximum temperature,the average temperature and the relative humidity,and its direct and indirect effect on summer grain crops output.Then we carried out the stability examination through the related census method and the glide related inspection method to determine the significance relationship between the characteristic quantity of atmospheric circulation and the high temperature damage indexes of paddy rice,in order to analyzes the circulation reasons leading the high temperature damages.The results indicate that the influence of the number of days with daily maximum temperature ≥35℃ on ear-grain numbers is most direct and severe,while that with daily average temperature ≥30℃ causes an indirect effect.Concerning on the weight of a thousand seeds of paddy rice,the influence of the number of days with daily relative humidity ≤70% is most direct and severe,while that with daily maximum temperature ≥35℃ causes an indirect effect.We can predict the days of high temperature above and equal 35℃ during the last ten days of July to the first ten days of September in this year through forecasting the average of sub-high strength index of South China Sea during November to December in last year and the average of area index of North America vice-high during February to March in this year.

关 键 词：水稻 高温热害 通径分析 环流成因 

分 类 号：S428[农业科学—植物保护]