国家风险对我国出口贸易效应的实证分析  

Empirical analysis on export effect of country risk

作　　者：魏巧琴[1] 李晓洁[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学金融学院,上海200433

出　　处：《保险研究》2010年第10期10-17,共8页Insurance Studies

摘　　要：2008年金融危机导致全球贸易环境恶化,国家风险加大,我国出口贸易规模下降。本文运用回归模型,分析了金融危机前后中国的国别出口规模与其对应进口国的国家风险之间的相关性以及出口市场结构对相关性的影响。论文提出在国家风险评级相对下调的发达市场,中国要缓解出口的下滑,以及在收入水平较低的新兴市场,中国要扩大对其出口规模,及时识别、防范并化解国家风险具有重要意义。论文从出口信用保险的角度为我国化解国家风险、发展对外贸易提出了相关政策性建议。The financial crisis in 2008 worsened the global trade and investment environment, increased country risks, and decreased China＇s exports. This paper applied the regression model to examine the correlation between China＇s exports and the importing country＇s country credit, and the effect of market structure on this correlation. The paper suggested that, to ease the decline of exports to developed markets whose country credit was somewhat downward adjusted, and to increase exports to countries of lower per capita income, China should seek to identify and remove their country risks. Finally, the paper put forward suggestions from the perspective of export credit insurance on how to resolve country risks and develop foreign trade.

关 键 词：国家风险 出口贸易效应 出口信用保险 

分 类 号：F842[经济管理—保险]