一种基于模糊推理的新产品开发风险评价方法  

New Product Development Risk Evaluation Based on Fuzzy Reasoning

作　　者：李亚峰[1] 乐琦[1] 张磊[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北大学工商管理学院,沈阳110004

出　　处：《管理科学》2010年第5期53-61,共9页Journal of Management Science

基　　金：东北大学基本科研业务费(N090606001)~~

摘　　要：针对具有语言评价信息的新产品开发风险评价问题,提出一种基于模糊推理的评价方法。在已有研究成果的基础上,建立新产品开发风险指标体系;将专家给出的具有语言评价信息的风险指标影响程度矩阵、风险发生可能性向量和风险后果严重程度向量转化为三角模糊数形式的矩阵和向量;进一步地,通过运用线性加权法得到风险指标影响程度综合群体评价值、风险发生可能性群体评价值和风险后果严重程度群体评价值;在此基础上,运用模糊推理对新产品开发风险进行评价,根据评价结果得到新产品开发风险的置信度。最后,通过一个算例说明该方法的可行性和实用性。With respect to new product development risk evaluation problems with linguistic assessment information,a method based on fuzzy reasoning is proposed.Firstly,a new product development risk index system was established based on the existing research results.Then,the risk index influence matrix,risk occurring probability vector and risk consequence severity vector given by experts were transformed from linguistic assessment information into the form of triangular fuzzy numbers.Furthermore,we obtained the risk index influence synthetic group evaluation value,risk occurring probability group evaluation value and risk consequence severity group evaluation value by using linear weighted method.Based on three evaluation values,new product development risk can be evaluated by applying fuzzy reasoning.According to the evaluation result,the confidence of new product development risk was also obtained.Finally,we gave an example to illustrate the feasibility and practicality of the proposed method.

关 键 词：新产品开发 风险评价 语言评价信息 三角模糊数 模糊推理 

分 类 号：C931[经济管理—管理学]