区域物流与经济发展协整与因果互动机制  

Interactive mechanism of cointegration and causality between regional logistics and economic development

作　　者：崔国辉[1,2] 李显生[1] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学交通学院,吉林长春130012 [2]长春大学管理学院,吉林长春130022

出　　处：《交通运输工程学报》2010年第5期90-96,共7页Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering

基　　金：吉林大学博士后基金项目(801090410417);交通部软科学研究项目(2005332223160)

摘　　要：以物流产业投资、货物周转里程、物流网络密度和GDP为研究对象,运用动态计量经济理论的模型和方法,对吉林省1991～2007年物流产业与经济发展之间的协整与因果互动机制进行了实证分析。研究结果表明:从格兰杰因果关系检验看,吉林省物流网络密度对经济发展有单向的因果关系,经济发展对物流货物周转里程与物流产业投资有单向的因果关系;从协整检验和误差修正模型看,吉林省物流与经济关系呈现出比较稳定的长期均衡发展趋势,短期内的偏差波动将以8.7%的速度被纠正。Logistics industry investment,cargo turnover mileage,logistics network density and GDP were taken as studying objects,the methods and models of dynamic econometrics theory were used,the interactive mechanism of cointegration and causality was empirically analyzed between logistics industry and economic development from 1991 to 2007 in Jilin Province.Analysis result shows that Jilin logistics network density on economic development has one-way causality,and economic development on logistics cargo turnover mileage and logistics industry investment has one-way causality from the view of Granger causality test.From the views of cointegration test and error correction model,there is a relatively stable long-term equilibrium development trend between logistics and economics development in Jilin Province,and the fluctuation of deviation in the short term is rectified by the rate of 8.7%.4 tabs,2 figs,15 refs.

关 键 词：物流工程 区域物流 经济发展 协整检验 格兰杰因果检验 误差修正模型 

分 类 号：F503[经济管理—产业经济]