大型公共建筑风险的系统分析  

Systematic Analysis of Large-scale Public Building's Risk

作　　者：韩豫[1] 陈亮 成虎[1,3] 

机构地区：[1]东南大学项目管理研究所 [2]南京市建筑安装工程质量监督站 [3]中国建筑学会建筑经济分会

出　　处：《现代城市研究》2010年第10期92-96,共5页Modern Urban Research

基　　金：住房和城乡建设部专题项目"大型公共建筑风险评估制度研究"(2008年防灾应急课题22)的阶段研究成果

摘　　要：运用系统科学的思想和方法,将大型公共建筑作为开放的复杂系统,其风险由可靠性风险、安全性风险、可持续发展性风险构成。可靠性风险导致系统可靠性不足,安全性风险源于系统可靠性不足和安全性风险源,可持续发展性风险是可靠性和安全性风险在环境、社会系统中的长期体现。从系统动力学的角度,构建了由人、建筑物、环境组成的大型公共建筑的"风险元"系统。分析了大型公共建筑风险的系统动力学特征,指出大型公共建筑的"风险元系统——风险系统"和"风险感知系统——风险管理系统"均为循环反馈动力系统。建立了大型公共建筑的风险空间模型,用空间向量对风险状态进行描述,提出了风险安全集合的概念,用函数关系证明了降低大型公共建筑风险的根本在于提高系统可靠性。Large-scale public building is conceived of as an open complex system by using system thinking and method.Large-scale public building＇s risk is made up of reliability risk,security risk and sustainable development risk.Reliability risk leads to the system reliability insufficiency.Security risk originates from system reliability insufficiency and security risk source.Sustainable development risk is long-term embodiment of reliability risk and security risk,in the environment and social system.The ＂risk elements system＂,which is made up of human,building and environment,is established.The authors analyze the dynamic system＇s characteristics of risk,and then point out that the ＂risk elements system risk system＂ and ＂risk perception system risk management system＂ are feedback loop dynamic systems.By established the risk space model,described the risk state with space vector,the authors present the concept of risk security space.The functional relation of risk proves the key to reducing large-scale public building＇s risk is improving the system reliability

关 键 词：大型公共建筑 风险系统 系统动力学 风险空间模型 风险安全集合 

分 类 号：TU242[建筑科学—建筑设计及理论]