新疆棉花热量指数的灰色预测方法  

Grey forecasting model of heat index of cotton in Xinjiang

作　　者：郭建平[1] 陈玥熤[1,2] 赵俊芳[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081 [2]广东省气象局,广东广州510080

出　　处：《干旱区地理》2010年第5期710-715,共6页Arid Land Geography

基　　金：“十一五”国家科技支撑计划课题(2006BAD04B02)

摘　　要：GM(1,1)是开展时间序列环境要素变化趋势预测的有效方法之一。通过对新疆不同棉区棉花热量指数的分析,建立了热量指数时间变化趋势的GM(1,1)预测模型,各模型的平均回代精度都在90%以上,试报精度比回代精度要低,但也能满足实际使用要求,可以应用该模型的预测结果指导农业生产。Xinjiang is the most important base area of commercial cotton in China,where the cotton has good quality and high yield.The main climate factor which constraints the cotton＇s yield and quality in Xinjiang is the unstable inter-annual thermal condition.Furthermore,the main agro-meteorological disaster which affects the cotton＇s yield and quality is the cold damage,rather than the drought disaster.Thus,it is very important to forecast cold damage timely and accurately,in order to adjust layouts of cotton varieties reasonably,take preventive measures and reduce impacts of cold damage.The heat index is one of the most direct indexes characterizing thermal state of the environment.It is also one of the basic indicators to predict the cold damages.In a word,it is significant to carry out the heat index forecast for the guidance of Xinjiang＇s cotton production and the sustainable development.The grey model（GM） is one of the effective and efficient methods to predict the trend of environmental elements time series and has been widely used in many fields.Through the analysis of thermal conditions in the five regions of Xinjiang,it is found that sub-district of mid-maturing cotton has relatively good thermal conditions,and the cotton is less affected by the low temperature.It is not significant to carry out the low temperature and cold damage forecast in these areas.Therefore,four representative sites,namely Shache County,Aksu,Shihezi and Bole City,are chosen to represent the Yeta sub-district of early-mid maturing cotton,the Taha sub-district of early-mid maturing cotton,the sub-district of early-maturing cotton,the sub-district of very early maturity cotton,respectively.Heat indexes were calculated by using mean temperature data from 1961 to 2005（the mean temperature was calculated at a 10-day step）,combined with the heat demand conditions of cotton at different growth stages.Through the analysis of these indexes,monthly heat indexes were obtained,and the GM（1,1） was furthermore constructed.The results

关 键 词：新疆 棉花 热量指数 灰色预测 

分 类 号：S562[农业科学—作物学]