太阳活动对中国东部夏季降水异常的可能影响  

The possible impact of solar activity on summer rainfall anomaly in Eastern China

作　　者：潘静[1] 李崇银[1,2] 顾薇[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学数值模拟国家重点实验室,北京100029 [2]解放军理工大学气象学院,南京211101 [3]国家气候中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气象科学》2010年第5期574-581,共8页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(40705023)

摘　　要：太阳活动与气候变化的关系急需深入进行探索性研究,本文的分析研究表明,中国东部夏季降水与太阳活动有明显的关系。强(弱)太阳活动年,华北平原和东北南部地区少(多)雨,西北地区却多(少)雨,而江淮地区的夏季降水量也偏多(少);太阳活动与夏季的梅雨量存在着既显著又复杂的相关关系,而且它们间的相关关系还随时间有年代际变化。强(弱)太阳活动有利于在中国上空造成500 hPa位势高度出现正(负)异常,并与夏季降水异常的形势较为相配,可认为是太阳活动影响中国东部降水的重要途经。尽管目前尚未形成完整的理论,但基于已有的观测和分析研究,作为一个讨论内容,我们提出了一些关于太阳活动影响天气气候变化的初步看法。The relationship between the solar activity and climate variation is a noteworthy science question.The analysis of this paper shows there is a distinct relationship between the solar activity and the precipitation over East Asia.During high solar activity period,there is negative summer rainfall anomaly in Northeastern China and positive summer rainfall in Northwestern China and Yangtze-Huai River area.While during the low solar activity period,the situation is opposite.Secondly,in this papar,the correlation relationship between the solar activity and ＂Meiyu＂ is also depicted,which is notable and complicated.Its variation is consindered to involve notable decadal signal.Finally,the possible mechanism through which the solar activity affects the precipitation over Eastern China is discussed.The solar activity makes an impact on troposphere circulation pattern.During different solar activity periods,the 500 hPa geo-potential height pattern is quite different.And the geo-potential height anomaly associated with solar activity is closely related to the rainfall anomaly,which can be seen as the possible path through which the sun affects the precipitation over Eastern China.Although the solar-climate relationship needs further study,the preparatory options are brought out in this paper to discuss the possible impact of the solar activity on the climate variation based on the observational data analysis.

关 键 词：大气环流 太阳活动 夏季降水异常 影响途经 

分 类 号：P461.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]