全球气温趋势和近期中国气候灾害的成因分析和展望  

Causal analysis and prospects on clmate trend of global temperature and recent climate disasters in China

作　　者：徐群[1] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省气象科学研究所,南京210008

出　　处：《气象科学》2010年第5期582-590,共9页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY20090627)

摘　　要：全球气温演变趋势和近期中国气候灾害有一定的联系;分析表明:1998年以来全球气温基本稳定仅有小幅波动,并未呈现如IPCC(2007)所预言的那样快速升温,而2005年以来太阳活动的异常状况可能标志它今后的长期减弱趋势;因此本文首先归纳太阳活动影响气候研究的最新进展,发现其对气候的影响绝非限于大气顶上太阳总幅照(TSI)的微小变化,而会通过平流层臭氧对更大变幅的紫外辐射的的吸收,加热作用触发平流层-对流层的大气环流变化,结合热带-副热带海洋混合层对太阳输入能量的积累,TSI 0.1%的变化会在地球气候系统中产生放大效应,这突出表现在东太平洋热带-副热带海域海-气作用的响应,ENSO位相相应变化及北极/北大西洋涛动指数的响应,大量的观测研究结果支持上述论点;近年来太阳活动低值期北半球冬季中高纬和中国均遭受异常冷害侵袭即是明证,初步揭示出以夏季东太平洋副高强度指数首先反映的地球气候系统对太阳活动响应的一系列气候过程;对今后10 a全球气温趋势也作了初步展望。The trend of global surface temperature change has some connection with occurrences of recent climate disasters in China.Through analyzing,the global temperatures were basically steady with changes of minor amplitudes only since 1998,their rapid rising has not been appeared as IPCC（2007） predicted;however the anomalous condition of solar activity since 2005 may mark a long-term weakening trend hereafter.So present paper at first summarizes the new advances of researches in solar-climate relationship.It was found that the solar effect is not confined to its minor change of the Total Solar Irradiance（TSI） on the top of atmosphere;its UV fraction with significantly larger amplitude can be absorbed by the stratospheric ozone and heated,such heating then modifies stratospheric/tropospheric circulation;associated with the accumulation of the changing solar flux in the mixed layer of tropical/subtropical ocean,the minor change（0.1%） of TSI out of atmosphere can be thus amplified in Earth＇s climate system,which were predominantly revealed in the response of air-sea interactions in tropical/subtropical regions of the East Pacific,the phase changes of ENSO and the index responses of the Arctic/North Atlantic Oscillations.A lot of observational researches support above mentioned views,it was also witnessed by the occurrences of many abnormal cold events in China and other extratropical zones of the Northern Hemisphere during recent winters within the period of present low solar activity.A series of climate processes responding to solar activity first appearing in the intensity index of eastern Pacific subtropical high in summer was disclosed tentatively.Preliminary outlook for the trend of global temperature in the forthcoming 10 a was also made.

关 键 词：气温 气候灾害 日地关系机理 太阳活动异常减弱 成因分析与展望 

分 类 号：P457.3[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]