基于IPCC-AR4模式资料的地面气温超级集合预测  

The multimodel superensemble prediction of the surface temperature using the IPCC AR4 scenario runs

作　　者：智协飞[1] 伍清[1] 白永清[1] 祁海霞[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害省部共建教育部重点试验室,南京210044

出　　处：《气象科学》2010年第5期708-714,共7页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY200906007);2005年江苏省"六大人才高峰"项目;教育部留学回国人员科研启动基金

摘　　要：利用参与IPCC-AR4的8个全球气候系统模式对20世纪气候模拟情景下地面气温的模拟结果,对其进行多模式集成处理。在此基础上,对这些全球气候系统模式在各种能源之间的平衡（A1B）情景下2010—2030年的地面气温进行多模式超级集合预测。结果发现,8个全球气候系统模式模拟的地面温度均方根误差都比多模式简单集合平均的大。超级集合相对于各个模式及简单集合平均的模拟效果更好,其均方根误差比最好的模式误差减小了1.3℃。在A1B情景下,超级集合预测未来20 a北半球平均地面气温将普遍升高,大洋上的增温幅度比陆地上小。中国东部地区以及青藏高原、新疆大部未来20 a气温将明显升高,内蒙东部和辽宁西部最高升温可达2.0~2.4℃,其余地区升温在2.0℃以内。Based on the IPCC AR4 scenario runs of 8 models for global climate system simulations of the surface temperature for 20th century,the multimodel consensus simulations of the surface temperature were conducted and the root-mean-square errors（RMSEs） of individual models,multimodel ensemble mean as well as multimodel superensemble were calculated.In addition,the prediction of the surface temperature in the SRES A1B scenario for the period from 2010 to 2030 was conducted by using multimodel superensemble technique.Results show that the RMSEs of the 20th century surface temperature simulations of 8 individual models are larger than those of the multimodel ensemble mean.The simulation skills of the multimodel superensemble are higher than those of 8 individual models and the multimodel ensemble mean,and the RMSE of the surface temperature simulation of the multimodel superensemble is 1.3 ℃ smaller than that of the best individual model in the Northern Hemisphere.In the SRES A1B scenario for the period from 2010 to 2030,the mean surface temperature will increase in the Northern Hemisphere,and the increment of the mean surface temperature over the oceans is smaller than that over the continents.The mean surface temperature over East China,the Tibetan Plateau as well as most part of Xinjiang will rise considerably in the future 20 a with a maximum increment of 2.0-2.4 ℃ over East Inner Mongolia and West Liaoning province.The mean surface temperature increments over other areas of China are less than 2.0 ℃.

关 键 词：地面气温 多模式超级集合 SRES A1B排放情景 

分 类 号：P435.2[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]