国际贸易结算币种的选择——实证分析及对中国的启示  

The Choice of Settlement Currency in International Trade:An Empirical Analysis and Implication for China

作　　者：董有德[1] 王开 

机构地区：[1]上海大学经济学院

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2010年第10期17-21,34,共6页World Economy Studies

基　　金：上海市教委重点创新项目"服务业跨国公司垂直非一体化研究"(项目号:10ZS65);国家社会科学基金项目"发达国家跨国公司史研究"(项目号:05BJL049)的支持

摘　　要：本文首先总结了国际贸易结算货币的宏观前提条件和进出口商在贸易实践中的经验法则。继而通过收集全球41个国家1992～2007年的样本数据,从出口国货币、进口国货币和媒介货币计价结算三个视角进行实证研究。分析结果表明,除了汇率制度、货币的可兑换性等制度变量外,汇率的波动性、进出口贸易的规模、方向和结构也是影响结算币种选择的关键因素。因而,人民币国际结算若要取得重大进展,不仅要逐步完成资本项目的开放,完善汇率形成机制,还要努力实现贸易出口多元化,并致力于产品结构的优化升级。This paper summarizes the empirical regularities and macro-prerequisites of settlement currency in the international trade practice.Later,on the basis of previous literatures,the paper conducts an empirical research from exporting country's currency,importing country′s currency and vehicle currency by 41 countries,1992～2007 of sample data.The results show that,in addition to exchange rate system and currency convertibility,exchange rate volatility,the size and orientation and structure of trade also play a key role in affecting the choice of settlement currency.Thus,if RMB of international settlement would achieve significant progress,the government must not only liberalize gradually the capital account and improve the exchange rate mechanism,but also make efforts to diversify export direction and upgrade product structure.

关 键 词：结算货币 技术结构 汇率波动 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]