应用聚类算法和混沌理论的短期负荷概率性区间预测  

Effect of Atmospheric Factors on AC Corona Inception Voltage of Conductors and Its Correction

作　　者：方仍存[1] 周建中[2] 

机构地区：[1]湖北省电力试验研究院,湖北省武汉市430077 [2]华中科技大学水电与数字化工程学院,湖北省武汉市430074

出　　处：《电网技术》2010年第11期70-76,共7页Power System Technology

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划项目（973项目）（2009CB-724502）.

摘　　要：将聚类算法和混沌时间序列方法相结合，提出了一种短期负荷概率性区间预测方法。该方法采用聚类算法在相空间中寻找当前相点的多个相似状态，以避免如何选取相似状态和相似状态个数的问题；根据不同相似状态确定性预测结果的最大值和最小值构造预测区间，结合历史预测误差的统计规律计算区间对应的概率置信水平。采用我国北方某电网负荷数据对算法进行了测试，分析了聚类阈值对相似状态个数、区间中值、区间长度的影响，预测结果表明了该方法的有效性。Variation of air temperature, pressure and humidity along the line corridor in high altitude area will affect the corona characteristics of conductors. However, the research on comprehensive effects of these atmospheric factors is rare. Therefore, AC corona discharge experiments on four kinds of smooth conductors with different diameter are performed in large-scale artificial climate chamber where air temperature, pressure and humidity can be adjusted. Experimental results indicate that the effect of variation of air temperature on corona inception voltage is not obvious when air pressure and absolute humidity keep constant. With the increase of absolute humidity, the effect of air pressure on corona inception voltage will reduce, shows such feasturs that in region of low humidity, corona inception voltage increases slowly with the increase of absolute humidity, and good accordance is achieved between the measured and calculated results, while in region of high humidity, corona inception voltage decreases, and the difference between the measured and calculated results is big due to condensation on conductor, which distorts the surface electric field of conductors. Besides, The calculation formula and predicting method for corona inception voltage are presented, with conductor diameter, air pressure and humidity considered.

关 键 词：导线 电晕起始电压 空气温度 气压 湿度 

分 类 号：TM85[电气工程—高电压与绝缘技术]