Does a low solar cycle minimum hint at a weak upcoming cycle?  

作　　者：Zhan-Le Du Hua-Ning Wang 

机构地区：[1]Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100012, China

出　　处：《Research in Astronomy and Astrophysics》2010年第10期950-955,共6页天文和天体物理学研究（英文版）

基　　金：Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.10973020 and 40890161);supported by the Chinese Academy of Sciences through grant KJCX2-YWT04

摘　　要：The maximum amplitude （Rm） of a solar cycle, in the term of mean sunspot numbers, is well-known to be positively correlated with the preceding minimum （Rmin）. So far as the long term trend is concerned, a low level of Rmin tends to be followed by a weak Rm, and vice versa. We found that the evidence is insufficient to infer a very weak Cycle 24 from the very low Rmin in the preceding cycle. This is concluded by analyzing the correlation in the temporal variations of parameters for two successive cycles.The maximum amplitude （Rm） of a solar cycle, in the term of mean sunspot numbers, is well-known to be positively correlated with the preceding minimum （Rmin）. So far as the long term trend is concerned, a low level of Rmin tends to be followed by a weak Rm, and vice versa. We found that the evidence is insufficient to infer a very weak Cycle 24 from the very low Rmin in the preceding cycle. This is concluded by analyzing the correlation in the temporal variations of parameters for two successive cycles.

关 键 词：SUN activity -- Sun general -- sunspots 

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