济南7.18大暴雨中尺度分析研究  

Analysis on Mesoscale Mechanism of Heavy Rainstorm in Jinan on 18 July 2007

作　　者：徐珺[1] 毕宝贵[2] 谌芸[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局中国气象科学研究院,北京100081 [2]中国气象局,北京100081 [3]中国气象局国家气象中心,北京100081

出　　处：《高原气象》2010年第5期1218-1229,共12页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：公益性行业科研专项"精细化农业气候区划及其应用系统研究"(GYHYQX2007-6-7);中尺度对流性天气诊断分析方法研究(GYHY200906003)共同资助

摘　　要：利用常规和非常规观测资料、分辨率0.5°×0.5°、间隔6 h的GFS(Global Forecast System)分析场资料和WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting model)数值模拟结果,对2007年7月18日济南大暴雨进行了中尺度分析研究。结果表明,低空急流、自内蒙古南下的低层冷空气和中层干空气的配置有利于中尺度对流系统的发展和维持;中尺度对流系统生成、发展于低涡西南侧的辐合线上,低涡入海过程中移速减慢使辐合线经过济南速度减慢,导致济南持续3 h的短时强降水;生成于中尺度对流系统前30 km左右的对流系统与中尺度对流系统的合并使降水增幅,最终导致极端降水发生。Mesoscale mechanism of the formation of heavy rainstorm in Jinan on 18 July 2007 was studied using the conventional observation data,unconventional observation data,the averaged fields of GFS（Global Forecast System） 0.5°×0.5° analysis data and WRF（Weather Research and Forecasting model） simulation results.The results show that the low-level jet,cold air reflux from Inner Mongolia and dry air on the middle level of the troposphere form the favorable environment to the mesoscale convective system.In addition,mesoscale convective systems develope on the mesoscale convergence line on the westsouth side of low vortex.In mesoscale vortex entering into the sea process,its moving speed is to decelerate,which result in the slowdown of velocity the convergence line passing Jinan,which lead to 3 h heavy rainstorm there.It is convective cells generated ahead of the gust front at distances about 30 km combining with the MCS that contributes to the excessive precipitation.

关 键 词：济南 低空急流 中尺度对流系统 数值模拟 辐合线 阵风锋 

分 类 号：P458.121.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]