塔里木河流域上游三源流径流变化趋势分析  

Trend analysis of runoff variation in upper reaches of Tarim River Basin

作　　者：叶茂[1] 张鹏[2] 王炜[2] 赵新风[2] 侯亮 

机构地区：[1]新疆师范大学地理科学与旅游学院 [2]中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 [3]乌鲁木齐市林业局

出　　处：《水资源与水工程学报》2010年第5期10-14,共5页Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40971284;30970549)资助

摘　　要：以塔里木河流域上游三源流的阿克苏河、叶尔羌河、和田河为例,基于1957-2008年的年径流资料,运用趋势检验和小波分析方法分析了塔里木河上游三源流径流的变化趋势,揭示了流域径流的演变规律,得出以下结论:①塔里木河上游三源流的年径流变化趋势并不一致。其中,阿克苏河和叶尔羌河年径流表现出增加趋势,而和田河年径流量则表现出轻微的下降趋势。②塔里木河流域上游三源流年径流序列的主周期尺度并不一致。③塔里木河上游三源流年径流序列的丰枯变化与时间尺度密切相关,随着主周期尺度的降低,发生突变的年份会不断增加。④塔里木河流域年径流序列小波系数等值线分布比较密集,存在明显的小波系数高低值中心震荡。流域内年径流量在不同的时间周期尺度范围内均存在多个"丰枯"交替。As a demonstration from the headwaters of Tarim River Basin,the paper analyzed the trend characteristics of annual runoff processes from 1957 to 2008 by using the wavelet analysis method and trend check.The main conclusions are as follows： ①The change trend of the annual runoff in headwaters of Tarim River is different.The annual runoff has shown the increase tendency in Aksu River and Yarkand River,but it has shown the light decrease tendency in Hotian River.②The main period of the yearly runoff at the headwaters of Tarim River was different.③The change of runoff at upper reaches of Tarim River kept close with the time scale.With the decrease of the time scale,the abrupt year is increasing with the decrease of the main time scale.④Wavelet coefficient for annual runoff at upper reaches of Tarim River is denseness.The wavelet coefficient for annual runoff shaked at the middle.There were some run alternations at the different time scale in upper reaches of Tarim River.

关 键 词：径流变化 小波分析 塔里木河流域 

分 类 号：TV121.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]