船用锅炉主过热蒸汽管路破损的贝叶斯网络安全性定量分析  

Quantitative Safety Analysis on the Damage of Marine Boiler Steam Gas Pipelines Based on Bayesian Network

作　　者：初珠立[1] 杨自春[1] 

机构地区：[1]海军工程大学船舶与动力学院,湖北武汉430033

出　　处：《中国舰船研究》2010年第5期59-63,共5页Chinese Journal of Ship Research

基　　金：××装备预研基金项目(9140A27050106JB11)

摘　　要：针对贝叶斯网络方法在处理大规模复杂系统上的优点,结合当前船用锅炉的安全性定量分析特点,提出将贝叶斯网络方法应用于船用锅炉的安全性分析。通过探讨贝叶斯网络及故障树分析方法原理,尝试将贝叶斯网络与故障树分析方法结合起来,主要突出贝叶斯网络方法可以实现数据的自动更新及由后验信息到先验信息的反向推理能力。最后将该方法应用于船用锅炉的安全性定量分析中,通过更新观测部件故障状态实现了整个系统的自动更新,并自动查找出最大概率事件,证实该方法提高了安全性分析效率,使实际操作更加准确、快捷,极大地的降低了事故带来的风险。Bayesian Network（BN） has advantages in dealing with the large scale complex system and can be used to undertake safety analysis of marine boiler system.Attempts have been made to conduct such analysis by combining the BN theory with the Fault Tree Analysis（FTA） method.In this study,particular attention was given to the automatic updating ability of the BN method as well as its capability of reverse reasoning from posteriori information to apriori information.Using this methods,the whole system was updated automatically by upgrading the FT status of detection units and therefore the events of maximum probability were determined.The results indicate that using this method can make the safety assessment more accurately and rapidly and also have the potential to improve the analysis＇s efficiency and greatly mitigate the risks brought by the accidents.

关 键 词：贝叶斯网络 安全性定量分析 反向推理 船用锅炉 

分 类 号：TK229.7[动力工程及工程热物理—动力机械及工程]