AMSAA模型可靠性增长预测方法的改进  

An Improved Reliability Growth Prediction Algorithm Based on AMSAA Model

作　　者：孙永全[1] 郭建英[1] 陈洪科[1] 马兴媛[1] 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨理工大学测控技术与通信工程学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150080

出　　处：《哈尔滨理工大学学报》2010年第5期49-51,56,共4页Journal of Harbin University of Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(60072002);国家高科技研究计划(863)(2009AA04Z407)

摘　　要：为预测系统可靠性增长,依据可靠性增长评估及预测理论,基于AMSAA模型研究了可靠性增长预测方法.在试验条件与改进强度不变的条件下,将仿真数据与原始数据联合,建立了新陈代谢的预测算法,给出了系统MTBF预测的点估计和置信区间估计,并进行了预测精确度分析.通过数值例的对比分析,不仅验证了本方法的有效性,而且扩展了数据量,提高了预测准确度和预测精确度.In order to predict system reliability growth,we study reliability growth prediction methods based on reliability growth estimation and prediction theory and AMSAA model.Supposing testing conditions and corrective intensity does not change,we establish the metabolic prediction algorithm by combining the simulation data and testing data,and then give the point estimation and confidence interval estimation of the system MTBF,analyzing the prediction accuracy.The validity of the method is verified through the numerical example comparison,and also the prediction accuracy and precision are improved by extending the data quantity.

关 键 词：可靠性增长 预测 AMSAA模型 仿真数据 

分 类 号：TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]