基于粗糙集的权重确定方法在我国喜马拉雅山地区典型冰碛湖溃决危险性评价中的应用  

A Weight Determination Method Based on Rough Set for Hazard Assessment of Typical Moraine-dammed Lake Outburst in Himalayan Region

作　　者：舒有锋[1] 王钢城[1] 庄树裕[1] 刘伟 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学建设工程学院,吉林长春130026 [2]西藏自治区地质环境监测总站,西藏拉萨850001

出　　处：《水土保持通报》2010年第5期109-114,共6页Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：中国地质调查局项目"喜马拉雅山地区重大地质灾害调查与减灾措施研究"(1212010640702)

摘　　要：采用一种粗糙集改进方法,针对我国喜马拉雅山地区典型冰碛湖,认为溃决危险性冰碛湖具有冰川地貌陡峭,冰川活动频繁,湖盆规模较大,终碛堤稳定性差以及气候湿热等5大特征。选取了冰碛湖溃决危险性评价指标,综合实际调查结果确定各指标权重,并通过模糊综合评判对其进行了验证。根据权重值得出影响冰碛湖溃决的最重要特征是冰碛堤稳定性(权重为0.42),次重要为气候特征(权重为0.18),另3项特征(权重均约为0.13)接近。评价指标重要性等级为:终碛堤宽度、水热组合为重要影响因素;距冰舌前段距离、冰湖面积、海拔高度为中等影响因素;背水坡度、终碛堤平均颗粒粒度为一般影响因素。模糊综合评判结果与实际调查接近一致,权重的准确性较高,对于我国冰碛湖的危险性评价具有重要的参考价值。This study adopts an improved method of the rough set.In view of the typical moraine-dammed lakes in Tibet,China,it is proposed that the moraine lakes prone to outburst often have the five characteristics of steep glacial relief of moraine lake area,frequent glacial activities,large scale of moraine lakes,poor stability of moraine dam,and wet-hot climate condition.Based on the characteristics,evaluation factors are selected in the hazard assessment of moraine-dammed lake outburst.Then,weights are determined for the factors in consideration of practical survey result and verified by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.By the weights,it can be concluded that the most important factor on outburst is the stability of moraine dam（weight value 0.42）,the second is the climate condition（weight value 0.18）,and the other three are closely equal（each weight value about 0.13）.Width of moraine dam and warm-humid combination are the important influencing factors;lake-glacial distance,lake area,and altitude height are the secondarily important influencing factors;moraine distal flank steepness and average particle size of moraine dam are the ordinary factors.The result of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is consistent with that of practical survey,so the weights of the high accuracy can be of great reference value to the hazard assessment of moraine-dammed lake outburst in China.

关 键 词：冰碛湖 溃决 粗糙集 危险性评价 评价指标 

分 类 号：S[农业科学]