中国服务业发展与制造业升级关系研究——基于东、中、西部面板数据的经验证据  

Research on the Relationship between the Development of Chinese Services and Manufacturing Upgrading——Based on Panel Data of Three Economic Regions

作　　者：王治[1] 王耀中[1] 

机构地区：[1]长沙理工大学经济与管理学院,湖南长沙410004

出　　处：《华东经济管理》2010年第11期65-69,共5页East China Economic Management

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目"开放经济下我国现代服务业发展战略研究"(08AJY035);湖南省科技厅软科学项目"长株潭城市群现代服务业与新型工业化互动机理研究"(2009ZK3061);湖南省教育厅项目(07C113)

摘　　要：文章采用中国大陆东、中、西三大经济区1992—2008年的面板数据,运用Johanson面板协整检验、Granger因果关系检验和面板误差纠正模型,检验了中国服务业发展和制造业升级之间的因果关系。研究表明,即便是在东部发达地区,制造业升级和服务业发展的协同互动关系仍然没有建立起来。东部地区服务业的快速发展在很大程度上是由于该地区制造业的升级所引至的,但服务业发展对该地区制造业发展水平提高的作用却不明显。中、西部地区制造业发展水平相对较低,两地大力发展传统服务业从而带动了制造业的发展,但由于缺乏现代制造业的支撑,两大经济区服务业和制造业仍处于相对较低的水平。By using panel data on the eastern, the middle and the western region in China in period of 1992 to 2008, we test the causal relationship between the development of Chinese services and manufacturing upgrading through Johanson co - integration test, granger cau- sality test and panel error correction model. The research shows that the interactive relationship between manufacturing upgrading and services development has not been built even in eastern developed area. Although manufacturing upgrading in the eastern region promotes the rapid development of services to a large extent, there is no obvious effect of services development on the improvement of manufactur- ing. There is relatively low level of manufacturing development in the eastern and western regions in which the great development of tradi- tional services accelerates manufacturing development, whereas services and manufacturing in both regions remain at a relatively low level due to being short of support of modern manufacturing.

关 键 词：服务业发展 制造业升级 因果关系 

分 类 号：F063.1[经济管理—政治经济学]