灰色—马尔可夫模型在车辆装备保养器材储备预测中的应用研究  

Research on Application of Grey-markov Model in Vehicle Equipment Maintaining Spare Inventory Prediction

作　　者：汪正西[1] 王耀军[1] 李红勋[2] 邱鹞[3] 金翔[4] 

机构地区：[1]军事交通学院装备保障系,天津300161 [2]军事交通学院科研部,天津300161 [3]73825部队,徐州221116 [4]驻武汉铁路局军代处,武汉430000

出　　处：《军事交通学院学报》2010年第6期38-41,共4页Journal of Military Transportation University

摘　　要：针对保养器材的随机消耗特点,首次将灰色—马尔可夫模型应用于车辆装备保养器材的储备预测,并以实例进行了验证。结果表明,灰色—马尔可夫模型既能揭示保养器材消耗的总体趋势,又能克服消耗数据本身的随机波动性对预测精度的影响,具有较强的实际应用性。Due to the random wear-out characteristic of maintaining spares,a vehicle equipment maintaining spare inventory prediction model based on Grey-markov method are given to validate by practical example for the first time,The experimental results show that applying this model not only can indicate the trend of maintaining spare consumption,but also can overcome the impact of random fluctuation data on prediction precision.

关 键 词：灰色—马尔可夫模型 车辆装备 保养器材 储备预测 

分 类 号：TJ810[兵器科学与技术—武器系统与运用工程]