地震预测预警等级风险评估与分区分级发布方案的研究  

Research on Risk Assessment of Grade of Earthquake Prediction and Early Warning and Scheme of Regional Release at Different Levels

作　　者：杨马陵[1] 沈繁銮[2] 陈大庆[1] 曾春梅[2] 

机构地区：[1]广东省地震局,广东广州510070 [2]海南省地震局,海南海口570203

出　　处：《灾害学》2010年第4期1-4,10,共5页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划( 2006BAC01B03 -04 -06)

摘　　要：从地震预测预警的思路和要达到的减灾目的出发,提出了发布预测预警的基本原则,并根据地震灾害的特点,给出了地震预测预警等级的划分。结合我国地震预报、震灾预防等方面的理论与实践,提出了预测预警等级的风险评估方法和分区分级发布方案。以地震实例对风险评估、分区分级发布方案进行了案例分析和检验。From the idea of earthquake prediction and early warning for purpose of disaster reduction, basic principles of release of earthquake prediction and early warning are put forward. In accordance with the characteristics of earthquake disaster, grade classification of earthquake prediction and early warning is given. The risk assessment of grade of earthquake prediction and early warning and scheme of regional release at different levels are put forward in the light of the theory and practice of earthquake forecast and disaster prevention in China. Finally, the risk assessment of earthquake prediction and early warning and scheme of regional release at different levels are analyzed and tested by use of some cases of earthquake forecast.

关 键 词：地震 预测预警等级 风险评估 分区分级 发布方案 

分 类 号：P315.9[天文地球—地震学]