1997～2006年经济波动之新解：资本监管和货币政策非对称效应--兼论2007～2008年中国经济的“三高”现象  

A New Explanation of 1997～2006 Economic Fluctuation——Capital Regulation and Asymmetry of Monetary Policy

作　　者：金永军[1] 范小雯[2] 陈柳钦[3] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学国际经济研究所上海200120 [2]深圳大学经济学院,深圳518060 [3]天津社会科学院城市经济研究所,天津300191

出　　处：《经济与管理研究》2010年第11期39-48,60,共11页Research on Economics and Management

摘　　要：1997～2006年我国经济运行出现的经济增长和物价波幅减缓、长期通货紧缩、存差持续扩大等新特点,受到广泛关注。本文借助货币政策传导的信贷渠道,将资本监管因素纳入货币政策非对称效应的分析框架,建立了KCC-LM模型。该模型内含的资本监管因素强化的货币政策对银行信贷和产出的非对称效应较好地解释了1997～2006年我国经济波动的新特点及2007～2008年经济的"三高"现象,并揭示了1998年以来我国实施的稳健性货币政策所折射出的"宽货币-紧信贷"的调控思路,该思路的制度性原因是我国金融控制力目标和金融稳定性目标的内在矛盾。New characteristics of our economic fluctuation from 1997 to 2006 such as the alleviation of economic growth and price fluctuation, long - time deflation and continuous enlargement of deposit - loan differences are well - known. This paper brings bank capital regulation into the framework of asymmetry of monetary policy by means of credit channel of mo- netary policy and establishes KCC - LM model. This model explains well new characteristics of our economic fluctuation from 1997 to 2006 and the Three High economic phenomena during 2007 -2008, and reveals well the regulation logic of Easy Money - Tight Credit that prudent monetary policy implicates, which is the embodiment of contradiction of financial control purpose and financial stability purpose.

关 键 词：资本监 管经济波动 货币政策 非对称效应 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]