新型农村社会养老保险基金收支平衡模拟与预测——基于制度风险参数优化的视角  

Simulation and Forecast of the New Type Rural Social Endowment Insurance Funds Balance——From the Perspective of Optimization of System Risk Parameters

作　　者：封铁英[1] 李梦伊[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学公共政策与管理学院,西安710049

出　　处：《公共管理学报》2010年第4期100-110,共11页Journal of Public Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(09&ZD057);教育部人文社会科学研究项目(09XJC840001)

摘　　要：随着我国农村人口老龄化进程的加快,广大农民的养老需求与日俱增,为了积极探索农村养老保险模式,有效推进试点工作、规避基金失衡风险,本文以《国务院关于开展新型农村社会养老保险试点的指导意见》(国发(2009)32号)为政策依据,运用社会保障统计与精算技术方法,构建新型农村社会养老保险基金收支平衡精算模型,以陕西省为例对模型进行应用,基于制度风险参数优化的视角从短期平衡和长期平衡两个维度模拟和预测基金收支平衡状态。研究结果表明,参保率、个人缴费率、养老金计发月数和基金投资收益率四类参数分别具有扩大或缩小基金长期、短期缺口的影响作用。以参数调整对比分析结果为基础,本文从分阶段逐步扩大制度覆盖范围、设置弹性多样的参保缴费方式、合理确定个人账户养老金计发月数、实现符合新农保特点的投资与管理创新四方面提出应对农村人口老龄化危机、促进新农保制度长期可持续发展的政策建议。With the rapid process of China's rural population aging,support demand of rural elderly population has increased gradually.In order to explore rural endowment insurance mode,to promote pilot project effectively,to avoid the risks of funds imbalance,this paper constructs the actuarial models of the New Type Rural Social Endowment Insurance Funds Balance by actuarial theory and techniques in social security,based on the document named 'The Guidance of Launching New Type Rural Social Endowment Insurance' promulgated by State Council in 2009.From the perspective of optimization of system risk parameters,the paper simulates and forecasts the short-term and long-term balances of the New Type Rural Social Endowment Insurance Funds in Shanxi Province.The results show that endowment insurance ratio,contribution rate,devisor factor of pension and rate of return on investment all have significant influences on the funds gap.Therefore,based on model parameters adjustment analysis,this paper proposes to increase the coverage of the New Type Rural Social Endowment Insurance by steps,to design flexible and diverse payment methods,to determine the reasonable number of devisor factor of pension and to innovate the investment and management mode according to the characteristics of the New Type Rural Social Endowment Insurance funds.

关 键 词：新型农村社会养老保险 基金收支平衡 模拟与预测 制度风险参数 优化 

分 类 号：C913.7[经济管理]