地震活动性的定量化及其在地震中期预报中的应用  

Seismicity Quantitation and Its Application to Mid term Earthquake Prediction

作　　者：王炜[1,2] 刘峥[1,2] 宋先月 王峥峥[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]上海市地震局 [2]江苏省地震局

出　　处：《中国地震》1999年第2期116-127,共12页Earthquake Research in China

基　　金：国家地震局95-04项目

摘　　要：在分析描述地震活动性的各类参数的基础上，认为Ａ（ｂ）值可以较好地定量描述一个地区的地震活动增强和平静特征。作者用１９７２～１９９６年期间华北地区地震资料进行Ａ（ｂ）值空间扫描。结果表明绝大部分中强以上地震前２～３年，在未来震中周围出现较大范围Ａ（ｂ）值中期异常区域，有很好的预报效果。Based on the analysis of each parameter described seismicity, we think A(b ) value can better quantitatively describe the enlargement and quiet of seismici ty in this paper. The seismicity data of moderate or small earthquakes during 19 72～1996 in North China are used to space scanning of A(b ) value. The resul t shows that in mid term of 2～3 years before most strong earthquakes there are obviously anomaly zones of A(b ) value with very good prediction ability . Some problems about mid term prediction used A(b ) value are also disscus ed.

关 键 词：地震活动 定量化 地震预报 中期预报 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学] P315.5[天文地球—固体地球物理学]