金融危机对国际贸易的影响及其对我国的启示  

The Impact of Financial Crisis on International Trade and its Lesson for China

作　　者：王小梅[1,2] 秦学志[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学管理学院,辽宁大连116023 [2]山东大学威海分校商学院,山东威海264209

出　　处：《当代经济管理》2010年第10期59-62,共4页Contemporary Economic Management

基　　金：大连市社科基金(09DLSK012);大连理工大学人文社科基金(DUTHS2008203)资助

摘　　要：考察国际贸易的变化是测度金融危机影响的一种直接手段。通过比较借鉴经典的银行挤提理论和引力模型,对国际贸易视角下的金融危机影响进行了理论分析;筛选了20个国家2008年的双边贸易数据、宏观经济数据等作为样本,进行了实证检验。结果表明,金融危机对国际贸易有显著影响且其影响具有滞后性。同时探讨了我国可以采取的对策。Observing the changes in international trade is a direct way to measure the impact of financial crisis.By quoting and comparing the classical bank run theory and gravity model,this paper firstly makes a theoretical analysis of effects of financial crisis in the perspective of international trade.It then uses bilateral trade data and macroeconomic data in 2008 from 20 selected countries to do an empirical research.The findings show that financial crisis has a significant impact on international trade and its impact can be lagged.Finally,the paper discusses several countermeasures for the impact.

关 键 词：引力模型 金融危机 国际贸易 

分 类 号：F740[经济管理—国际贸易] F830[经济管理—产业经济]