数值预报产品在泰安市温度预报中的检验  

Test of Numerical Prediction Products in Temperature Forecast in Tai'an City

作　　者：康桂红[1] 张艳[1] 崔兆韵[1] 边智[1] 陈善炳[1] 贾思之[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东省泰安市气象局,山东泰安271000

出　　处：《现代农业科技》2010年第21期321-322,共2页Modern Agricultural Science and Technology

摘　　要：利用泰安市逐日最高气温和最低气温实况资料与T639、MM5、天气在线、EC(欧洲中心)的数值预报产品进行比较,全年最高气温预报准确率除1月小于50%外,其他月份均大于50%;最高的是7月,为72.3%;最低气温预报准确率大于50%的仅有6—8月3个月,最高的也是7月,为62.6%;最低的是10月,为34.2%。T639预报准确率整体较高,最高及最低气温预报准确率均大于50%,依次为天气在线、EC,MM5最差。The factual information of daily maximum and minimum temperatures in Tai＇an were compared with numerical forecast products such as T639,MM5,Weather Online,EC（European Centre）.The forecast accuracy rate of maximum temperature in whole year was all higher than 50%,except in January,the highest 72.3% in July;the prediction accuracy rates of minimum temperature higher than 50% were in June,July and August,the highest also in July,62.6%;the lowest was 34.2% in October.T639 was relatively higher in forecast accuracy on the whole,whose forecast accuracy rates of both maximum and minimum temperature were higher than 50%,successively were Weather Online,EC and MM5.

关 键 词：数值预报产品 温度预报 检验 山东泰安 

分 类 号：P457.3[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]