微型企业信贷违约风险的影响因素——对安徽省亳州市农村信用社的调查  

The Factors of the Default Risk of the Micro-Enterprise Credit——Based on the Investigation of the Rural Credit Cooperatives of Bozhou City,Anhui Province

作　　者：马宇[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东工商学院经济学院

出　　处：《金融论坛》2010年第11期76-80,共5页Finance Forum

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"基于风险分担机制变迁的美国次贷危机形成与扩散机理及其启示研究"(09BJL037);山东省自然科学基金项目"基于金融体系风险分担机制变迁的银行经营模式转型与银行安全"(Y2008H34);教育部人文社会科学研究规划项目"基于风险分担机制变迁的国际金融危机与我国金融安全"(09YJA790123)

摘　　要：本文在对安徽亳州农村信用社实地调查的基础上,利用Logistic模型对微型企业信贷违约的微观影响因素进行实证分析,结果表明:微型企业所处地理位置对违约风险影响显著,地处城区企业的违约概率小于地处乡镇和农村地区的企业,即区位优势对企业的经营有很大影响;贷款用途对企业违约风险影响显著,即将贷款用于流动资金周转的风险小于购买固定资产;贷款金额和期限对违约风险影响显著,即贷款数额越大,期限越长,违约风险越大;企业负责人受教育程度对违约风险影响显著,即负责人受教育程度越高,违约风险越小;另外,女性负责人的违约概率低于男性负责人。Based on the investigation of the rural credit cooperatives of Bozhou city, Anhui province and the Logistic model, this paper empirically analyses the micro-factor affecting the credit default of micro-enterprise.The results show that, the geographical location of the micro-enterprise significantly impacts on the default risk; the default probability of the enterprise located in the city is less than that of the enterprise located in town or rural area, which means that the location advantage has a significant impact on the operation of the enterprise; the purposes of the loan significantly impacts the default risk of the enterprise, i.e. the risk of the loan used for the cash flow is less than that for purchasing fixed assets; the amount and duration of the loan significantly impacts on the default risk, i. e. the bigger the amount and the longer the duration, the greater the risk; the education level of the enterprise＇s responsible person significantly impacts on the default risk, i. e. the higher the level, the less the risk. In addition, the responsible female person＇ s default probability is less than that of male person＇ s.

关 键 词：安徽 农村信用社 微型企业 违约风险 区位优势 

分 类 号：F832.35[经济管理—金融学]