中国蔬菜出口贸易变动的新趋势及影响因素分析  

New Trends of the Vegetable Exporting Changes and Influence Factors in China

作　　者：潘凤杰[1] 崔燕[2] 穆月英[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京100083 [2]北京城市学院经济管理学部,北京100083

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2010年第22期437-441,共5页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：果类蔬菜产业技术体系北京市创新团队项目;国家自然科学基金"东亚经济一体化对我国农业影响的SCGE模拟及对策研究"(71073158)

摘　　要：本文在分析中国蔬菜出口贸易最新特点的基础上,从蔬菜出口总量变动、出口去向结构、出口的国内地区来源结构、出口品种结构方面对中国蔬菜出口贸易新趋势进行分析;然后运用引力模型对蔬菜出口贸易变动的影响因素进行了实证分析。结果表明,中国和出口对象国(或地区)的GDP变量、人口变量、汇率变量、FTA变量均为重要影响因素,良好的贸易伙伴间的互惠制度安排有利于促进中国蔬菜贸易发展,减少双边贸易阻力。Based on analyzing new exporting characteristics of vegetable,this paper analyzed the new trends of the vegetable exporting changes in China from following aspects：the changes of vegetable exporting quantities,exporting destination structures,exporting domestic regional sources and exporting species structures.Then Gravity Model was used to do empirical analysis on main factors which affected new trends of vegetable exporting.The results showed that GDP,population,exchange rate and FTA variables were important factors.It was also found that appropriate mutual beneficial institutional arrangements among trading partners could promote Chinese vegetable trading and reduce bilateral trading resistance.

关 键 词：蔬菜 贸易 影响因素 引力模型 

分 类 号：F326[经济管理—产业经济]