北疆极端降水事件的初步分析  

The Preliminary Analysis of Extreme Precipitation Events in Northern Xinjiang

作　　者：赵勇[1] 黄丹青[2] 朱坚[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830002 [2]南京大学大气科学学院,江苏南京210093

出　　处：《沙漠与绿洲气象》2010年第5期1-5,共5页Desert and Oasis Meteorology

基　　金：中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项"新疆降水的变化规律及其数值模拟"(IDM200804);国家自然科学基金项目"我国气温和降水极端事件及其全球不均匀增暖的联系"(40675042)联合资助

摘　　要：基于北疆44站日降水资料,使用一元线性回归和二项式滑动平均等统计方法,分析了北疆极端降水量、极端降水频数和极端降水强度的时空变化特征。结果表明,极端降水在季节和空间分布上均存在较大差异,山区极端降水强度大,平原地区极端降水频数多。极端降水量和频数在夏季和冬季均呈明显增加趋势,伊犁河谷地区尤为显著,而春秋季变化趋势不明显。4个季节的极端降水强度和频数均以年际变化为主,春季的极端降水强度在1990年后出现多个峰值,而秋季,在1990年前存在多个峰值。Based on daily precipitation data from 44 stations in northern Xinjiang, this paper analyzed the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of the extreme rainfall amount, frequency of extreme precipitation and extreme precipitation intensity by statistical methods such as simple linear regression, binomial moving average etc. The results show that the extreme precipitation events have obvious seasonal and regional characteristics, i.e. stronger intensity in Tianshan Mountains and more frequency of extreme precipitation in plains. The extreme rainfall amount and frequency of extreme precipitation show increasing trend evidently in summer and winter, especially in Yili Valley areas, but not evident in spring and autumn. The temporal variation of the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation are mainly inter-annual variation, and the extreme precipitation intensity has several peak values after 1990 in spring, moreover it has several peak values before 1990 in autumn.

关 键 词：极端降水量 极端降水频数 极端降水强度 气候变化 

分 类 号：P468.024[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]