用冬季气压场做热带气旋年度趋势预报的研究  

A STUDY ON ANNUAL TENDENCY PREPREDICTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE BY USING OF PRESSURE FIELD IN WINTER

作　　者：贾瑞丽 李君 

机构地区：[1]青岛海洋预报台

出　　处：《海洋预报》1999年第2期35-41,共7页Marine Forecasts

摘　　要：本文对１９８９～１９９７年冬季冷高压气压场与夏秋热带气旋发生个数进行时滞相关分析，发现，两者间隔以后滞７个月为显著正相关。在此基础上分别用逐步回归方法及事件概率回归估计方法，建立方程，计算黄海热带气旋发生个数及偏离正常年份的程度，并对各种方法及预报结果进行了分析对比，效果较好。A time-delayed correlation analysis between cold high pressure in winter and the number of tropical cyclones in summer for the period of 1989～1997 has been made.The results show that between both exists high positive correlation.Based on this correlation,three stepwise regreession equations and one REEP(Regression Estimation of Event Probaility)equation have been formulated.Some prediction tests have been carried out.

关 键 词：冷高压 热带气旋 气旋预报 年度趋势预报 

分 类 号：P457.8[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]