天山地区夏季极端降水特征及气候变化  

Characteristics of the Extreme Precipitation Events in the Tianshan Mountains in Relation to Climate Change

作　　者：赵勇[1] 邓学良[2] 李秦[3] 杨青[1] 霍文[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830002 [2]安徽省气象科学研究所,安徽合肥230061 [3]新疆气象信息中心,新疆乌鲁木齐830002

出　　处：《冰川冻土》2010年第5期927-934,共8页Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology

基　　金：中央级科研院所基本科研业务费专项(IDM200804);中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF-09-20);新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金项目(200821176)资助

摘　　要：基于1961—2007年天山地区32站的逐日降水资料,分析了夏季天山地区极端降水事件的气候分布和时间变化特征.结果表明:夏季天山地区的极端降水量、极端降水日和极端降水比分布存在明显的区域差异.局地极端降水频繁,平均3～4d就有1次发生,大范围极端降水较少发生.连续性极端降水以1d为主.极端降水量在天山南北坡均随地形增加而增多,地形高度对降水的影响,北坡要大于南坡.在相同高度范围内,北坡极端降水量基本均大于南坡.天山地区的极端降水事件呈增多趋势,在1970年代中后期至1980年代中前期,极端降水事件为低值期,而1990年代是高值期.Based on the daily precipitation data from 32 stations in the Tianshan Mountains from 1961 to 2007,the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of extreme precipitation events are analyzed by statistical methods,such as binomial moving average and correlation.The results show that the extreme precipitation amount,the extreme precipitation days and the ratio of extreme precipitation have obvious regional difference.In a local scope,extreme precipitation may be frequent,once for 3～4 days on average,however,in a large scope,it is few.The most continuous extreme precipitation is within one day.The extreme precipitation increases with elevation on both north and south slopes of the Tianshan Mountains,with an elevation effect on the north slopes more than on the south slopes.For the same elevation range,the extreme precipitation amount in the north slopes is more than that in the south slopes on the whole.Recently,there is an obviously increasing tendency for the extreme precipitation events,with a low in the late 1970s and early 1980s and a high in the 1990s.

关 键 词：极端降水量 极端降水日 极端降水比 天山地区 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]