基于GIS的城市火灾风险评价及其在防灾规划中的应用  

GIS-based urban fire risk assessment and its application in disaster mitigation planning

作　　者：周亚飞[1] 刘茂[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学城市公共安全研究中心,天津300071

出　　处：《灾害学》2010年第B10期258-263,共6页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70833003)

摘　　要：随着经济发展和城市化进程的不断加快,城市火灾事故不断增多,造成的人员伤亡和财产损失也越来越严重。本文通过构建城市火灾风险评价指标体系,利用GIS中的空间分析功能对各指标体系按其权重进行叠加,得出城市的现状火灾风险等级区划图。根据风险评价现状确定防灾减灾规划的目标,采取相应的防灾减灾措施,并对规划后的火灾风险状况进行了预测,得出规划后的火灾风险等级,从而为消防和规划部门减少和预防城市火灾提供依据和参考。With the development of economy and rapid urbanization process,the number of fire disasters is growing every year,casualties and property losses are more and more serious.Preventing and managing urban fire accidents has become one of the significant urban problems for city fire managers.The purpose of this study is to develop and urban fire risk assessment model,in order to identify,classify and map fire risk areas.Urban fire risk assessment index system was constructed in this paper,several influence factors in urban fires were considered.Six components were used for a subjective way to determine weights,which were then multiplied with the factors and added together.After various parameters were superimposed using the spatial analysis function of GIS,risk evaluation results were revealed on GIS thematic map,and the city＇s present risk rating map was obtained.Then the disaster prevention and mitigation planning objective were determined base on risk assessment results and acceptable risk level,corresponding measures for disaster prevention and mitigation were adopted.The fire risk conditions after planning were predicted,and urban fire risk rating map at that time was estimated.The model was illustrated with a case study to check up its utility,for some feedback correction on the variables,the results suggested risk mapping is helpful for urban fire management to minimize urban fire risk.This model can also be applied to other cities,by exchanging the variables and the weights with actual situations,and can provide references for the prevention and mitigation of urban fires.

关 键 词：城市火灾 风险评价 防灾减灾规划 GIS 

分 类 号：TU99[建筑科学—市政工程]