万能寿险保单盈利能力分析  

Profitability Analysis of Universal Life Policy

作　　者：任淮秀[1] 马晓平[2,1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学财政金融学院 [2]幸福人寿保险公司重庆分公司

出　　处：《统计教育》2010年第11期49-54,共6页Statistical education

摘　　要：与传统寿险相比,万能寿险保单具有保障和投资功能、提供最低收益保证、保险利益直接与投资收益相连、保单变更灵活和产品透明等特点,进而万能保单的盈利模式也与传统寿险不同。本文对万能寿险保单的个人账户投资资产构建对数正态分布模型,计算账户价值,利用现金流法计算万能寿险保单公司账户责任准备金,进而计算公司利润水平指标,然后通过随机模拟对影响万能寿险保单盈利能力的个人账户收益率、留存收益率、公司账户投资收益率、贴现利率、生存和死亡概率等因素进行了分析。Compared with traditional life insurance,universal life policy has many different characteristics including security,investment,minimum return guarantee,benefit directly based on rate of return of investment,flexibility and transparency of policy etc..Due to those,the profit model of universal life policy is different from traditional life policy.The thesis focuses on establishing the lognormal return model for assets in the private account,by which the rate of return and value of private account are conducted.At the same time,the reserves for the company account are explored by using cash flow methodology and profitability index is determined.Simultaneously,through stochastic simulating,the thesis also analyzes some factors which influence the profitability of company account,these factors are composed of the rate of return for private account,retaining rate,discount rate and mortality etc..

关 键 词：万能寿险 对数正态分布 现金流 盈利能力 

分 类 号：C[社会学]