种群生态系统中的模糊软测量方法  

Soft Sensor Based on Fuzzy Theory in the Population Dynamical Systems

作　　者：李医民[1] 钱海燕[1] 

机构地区：[1]江苏大学理学院,江苏镇江212013

出　　处：《模糊系统与数学》2010年第5期131-140,共10页Fuzzy Systems and Mathematics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点资助项目(60234010);国家自然科学基金资助项目(11072090);江苏大学高级人才项目(07JDG022)

摘　　要：经典的生物模型中,关键参数的难以测量使整个动力系统具有较大的不确定性。本文引入模糊软测量技术,以湿地环境中三种群生态系统为例,将软测量技术与模糊系统结合应用于种群动力学模型,以种群数量的初始值、时间t及种群变化率为辅助参数进行种群数量的预测。运用软测量技术估计微分方程中关键参数(如竞争系数、最大捕获率、能量转换系数),建立确定的动力学微分方程模型。仿真结果显示此方法的可行性、有效性。In the classical biological model,some key parameters which are hard to measure can result in the uncertainty of the whole dynamical system.In this paper,a soft-sensing technique is proposed.Taking three species in the wetland ecosystems for example,the technique integrates the expert knowledge and experience and make use of three kinds of auxiliary parameters to get the prediction of the population.The auxiliary parameters are the initial values of the population,the time and the variations of the species.Finally,the soft-sensing technique is used to estimate the key parameters（such as competition coefficient,maximum catching rate and conversion coefficient） in the differential equations so that the differential equations can play their important roles.The simulation results show the feasibility and effectiveness of this method.

关 键 词：软测量技术 模糊建模 关键参数估计 种群生态系统 

分 类 号：O159[理学—数学]