工业出口贸易结构变动对我国能源强度的影响  

Analysis on the Impact of Changes in Industrial Export Trade Structure on China's Energy Intensity

作　　者：尹显萍[1] 石晓敏[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2010年第11期77-83,共7页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家社会科学基金(项目号:09BJY036);教育部人文社会科学研究基金(项目号:09YJA790151);湖北省社会科学基金(项目号:{2009}004)的资助

摘　　要：能源强度是反映一国综合能源利用效率的重要指标。在我国,工业是能源消费最多的生产部门,其出口产品的生产已成为影响能源强度的重要因素,由此也说明出口贸易结构的调整是实现节能降耗的重要措施之一。本文基于中国33个工业行业的时间序列数据,运用Granger因果关系模型及多元线性回归模型分析了1992-2008年工业低、中、高能耗行业组出口比重的变化对能源强度的实际影响。分析结果表明,我国能源强度和出口贸易结构之间存在单向因果关系,中、高能耗行业组与低能耗行业组出口比重变动对能源强度的影响分别表现为正向与反向作用。并且,低能耗行业组出口比重的上升对降低我国能源强度的作用远大于中、高能耗行业组出口比重下降所产生的节能影响。三个能耗组出口比重变动对能源强度的影响反映了我国工业内部结构的变动及不同行业的能源需求特征。据此,本文提出了优化产业结构和工业内部结构、融入更多有效可行的经济手段于节能减排措施中、加大研发投入以促进传统出口产品更新换代等政策建议。Energy intensity is an important indicator which reflects the synthetical efficiency for energy utilization of a country.As the largest production sector in energy consumption in China,industry has become an important influential factor on energy intensity owing to its export production.This also shows that the adjustment of export structure of industry is one of the important measures for achieving energy-saving.Based on time-series and cross-section data of China＇s 33 industrial branches,this paper applies multiple linear regression models to analyze the actual impacts on energy intensity of the changes in industry export proportion of different levels consisting of low,medium and high energy-consuming sector groups from 1992 to 2008.The analysis suggests that the impacts on energy intensity of changes in export proportion of high and medium energy-consuming sector groups as well as low energy-consuming sector group turn out to be positive and negative respectively.Moreover,the increase in export share of low energy-consuming sector group produces an effect greater on reducing energy intensity than the corresponding effect of the decrease in export share of high and medium energy-consuming sector group.The impact of the changes in export share of the three energy-consuming sector groups on energy intensity reflects changes in the internal structure of China＇s industry and the characteristics of energy demand in different industrial branches.On these grounds,this paper puts forward some policy recommendations such as optimizing the industrial structure and internal structure of industry,increasing the R D investment to promote the upgrade of traditional export products,and merging more effective and feasible economic means with energy-saving and emission reduction measures,etc.

关 键 词：出口贸易结构 我国能源强度 多元线性回归 节能降耗 

分 类 号：F746.12[经济管理—国际贸易]