广州市气象因子对心血管事件发生的影响  

THE EFFECT OF CLIMATIC FACTORS IN THE INCIDENCE OF CARDIOVASCULAR EVENTS IN GUANGZHOU CITY

作　　者：张健瑜[1] 梁丽英[2] 黄力[3] 刘锦銮[4] 梁子敬[5] 曾昭华[6] 

机构地区：[1]佛山市第一人民医院心内科,佛山528000 [2]广州医学院第一附属医院门诊 [3]广州市急救医疗指挥中心 [4]广东省气象局 [5]广州医学院第一附属医院急诊 [6]广州医学院第一附属医院心内科

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2010年第21期4015-4016,4024,共3页Modern Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：[目的]了解广州市气象因素对心血管事件发生的影响。[方法]采集2006年8月～2007年10月广州市每日气象因子数据(数据来自广东省气象局)以及同期广州市每日的心血管事件发生的资料(数据来自广州市急救医疗指挥中心,简称120系统),对其进行相关分析和逐步回归分析,建立相关预报方程,.通过预报方程预测未来广州心血管事件的发生。[结果]心血管事件的发生与当天的气温、平均气压、平均水汽压、平均露点温度、气温差相关(OR分别为-0.263、0.227、-0.223、-0.236、0.095);通过回归分析得出日心血管事件发病人数的回归方程(预测方程)为:Y=(19.120-0.198*日最低气温)*1.00008n(n为距离2006年8月1日的天数);对日心血管事件发病人数的回归方日程进行回代检验,以预报等级与实际等级相同的天数作为预报正确。预报等级与实际等级相差不超过一个等级的占82.4%(352/426)。[结论]广州市气象因子对心血管事件的发生有一定的影响,特别是气温。日心血管事件发病人数的回归方程对广州市心血管事件的发生有一定的预测作用。[Objective] To make clear the climatic factors in relation to the happening of cardiovascular diseases in the Guangzhou city.[Methods] Collected the data on the climatic factors and cardiovascular events in the period of time between August 2006 and October 2007 on a daily basis in Guangzhou city.Correlation analysis and step-by-step multivariate regression analysis were made.Worked out the formula for its prevention.With the formula,predicted the happening of cardiovascular diseases in the Guangzhou city,so that preventive measures could be taken for the high-risk people,or potential patients.[Results] The happening of cardiovascular diseases was related to the air temperature（OR=-0.263）,the average atmospheric pressure（OR=0.227）,the average dew point temperature（OR=-0.236）,the difference between the maximum and minimum air temperatures of the day in question（OR=0.095）.The formula obtained through the agency of regression analysis for the daily number of acting-out cases was：y =（19.120-0.198 ＊ the minimum air temperature of the day in question） ＊ 1.00008 n,where n was the number of days distant from August 1,2006.[Conclusion] The happening of cardiovascular diseases is related to the climatic factors especially temperature in Guangzhou city.

关 键 词：心血管事件 气象因子 气温 

分 类 号：R54[医药卫生—心血管疾病]