基于面板数据的农业气象灾害对中国粮食产量的影响分析  

A Study on the Effect of Agro-Meteorological Disasters on China's Grain Yield based on Panel Data

作　　者：俞云[1,2] 李芳[1] 

机构地区：[1]滁州学院经济管理学院,安徽滁州239001 [2]南京农业大学经济管理学院,江苏南京210095

出　　处：《经济与管理》2010年第11期5-8,共4页Economy and Management

摘　　要：中国是自然灾害频繁发生的国家,粮食生产受自然灾害影响极大。在各类自然灾害中,大概70%以上是气象灾害引起的。根据中国近30年的粮食产量统计资料,引入变截距双对数模型在不同阶段农业气象灾害对粮食产量的影响进行计量分析,结果表明,农业气象灾害对粮食产量的负面影响均较显著,并且农业气象灾害对粮食产量影响的程度呈不断下降的趋势。China is a country with frequently agricultural meteorological disasters.Natural disasters have a great influence upon the grain production.In all natural disasters,about 70% are caused by meteorological disasters.Using double logarithm and changed intercept model based on the grain yield statistics of China nearly 30 years to analyze the effect of different stages agro-meteorological disasters on the grain yield,the result indicated that negative effects of agro-meteorological disasters on grain yield are significant and the effect has a descending trend.

关 键 词：农业气象灾害 粮食产量 C-D生产函数 

分 类 号：F326.1[经济管理—产业经济]