@RISK在有害生物定量风险评估中的应用  

The application of @Risk in pest quantitative risk assessment

作　　者：马兴莉[1] 李志红[1] 陈克[2] 吴佳教[3] 马骏[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学农学与生物技术学院昆虫学系,北京100193 [2]中国检验检疫科学研究院 [3]广东出入境检验检疫局

出　　处：《植物检疫》2010年第6期1-6,共6页Plant Quarantine

基　　金：国家十一五科技支撑项目(2006BAD08A15);质检总局科研计划项目(2008IK264)

摘　　要：定性风险评估和定量风险评估是有害生物风险分析的主要方法,@RISK是进行定量风险评估的重要软件工具之一。本文在回顾有害生物定性风险评估与定量风险评估概念、关系及优缺点的基础上,综合分析了国内外使用@RISK软件针对植物病原物和害虫进行定量风险评估的发展现状,并就@RISK的未来应用提出了相关建议。Qualitative and quantitative pest risk assessment are regarded as the main methods of Pest Risk Analysis（PRA）.@RISK is one kind of important software of quantitative pest risk assessment in the world.In this paper,on the basis of reviewing the concepts,relations and their respective advantages and disadvantages of qualitative and quantitative pest risk assessment,we analyzed the research development of @RISK application on the quantitative pest risk assessment of plant pathogens and insect pests in the world.The related suggestions about @RISK further application on PRA were discussed primarily.

关 键 词：有害生物风险分析 定量风险评估 @RISK 

分 类 号：S41[农业科学—植物保护]