基于MS-AR模型的中国金融脱媒趋势分析  

The Analysis of China's Financial Disintermediation Trend Based on MS-AR Model

作　　者：宋旺[1,2] 钟正生[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院金融研究所博士后流动站,北京100732 [2]中国华融资产管理公司博士后科研工作站,北京100033 [3]中国人民银行营业管理部,北京100045

出　　处：《财经研究》2010年第11期115-126,134,共13页Journal of Finance and Economics

摘　　要：文章采用MS-AR模型对中国金融脱媒指标进行了深入解读:(1)近年来我国金融状态改革步伐的加快,并没有改变银行层面金融脱媒的运行轨道,平缓的金融脱媒仍是常态,偶尔几年的高速金融脱媒只是暂时性现象;(2)对于金融部门而言,在未来相当长的一段时间内平稳的金融脱媒还将延续,并且金融部门资产结构的调整落后于负债结构的变化;(3)非金融企业对"媒"的资金依赖将持续下降,由此带来的金融脱媒压力也将长期存在;(4)金融市场的发展以及金融工具种类的增加,至今仍未从根本上改变我国居民大量持有银行资产的状况。Based on MS-AR model,the paper explains financial disintermediation indexes in depth.The results are as follows：firstly,accelerated pace of financial system reform in China in recent years does not change the orbit of financial disintermediation in the banking level,and mild financial disintermediation is still the normality,while rapid financial disintermediation is only a temporary phenomenon;secondly,as for financial sectors,steady financial disintermediation will continue in the future,and the adjustment of assets structure of financial sectors is behind the change of liability composition;thirdly,non-financial companies＇ funding reliance on the intermediary will continue to decrease,and the financial disintermediation pressures will persist in the long run;fourthly,the development of financial markets and the increase in types of financial instruments have not fundamentally changed the tendency of holding a great deal of banking assets by Chinese households.

关 键 词：金融脱媒 马尔可夫状态转换 金融结构 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]