中国的低生育率与被忽略的人口风险  

China's Low Fertility and its Neglected Demographic Risk

作　　者：郭志刚[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学中国社会发展研究中心 [2]北京大学社会学系

出　　处：《国际经济评论》2010年第6期112-126,共15页International Economic Review

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目“我国人口发展与经济社会可持续发展战略研究”(项目批准号:08ARK001)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：近20年来,政府发布的生育率口径与实际人口调查结果之间存在着巨大差距。这种情况是中国进入低生育率时期以来有关认识严重脱离实际的反映。实际上,出生和生育统计已经长期陷入一种轻视调查结果、过于依赖主观判断的统计怪圈。这种状况的延续不仅会导致对当前总人口规模和人口年龄结构方面的统计极可能也存在严重偏差,而且还引向对人口老龄化风险性的忽略,误导未来中国人口长期发展趋势的判断和决策。There has been a big gap between the fertility statistics released by the government and the real population found in population surveys.Such a situation reflects the puzzle generated after China stepped in the era of low fertility.In practice,survey on birth and fertility rates has been mired in a strange statistical trap featured by ignorance of investigative results and reliance on subjective judgment.Continuation of that phenomenon will not only lead to erroneous statistics regarding the total population and structure of age,but also cause ignorance of the risks posed by aging and could mislead the future understanding regarding long-term population growth trend and decision-making.

关 键 词：低生育率 人口老龄化 未来人口趋势 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学]