农业政策、粮食产量与粮食生产调整能力  

Agricultural Policies,Food Production and Food Production-adjustment Ability

作　　者：陈飞[1,2] 范庆泉 高铁梅[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学数学与数量经济学院 [2]东北财经大学经济计量分析与预测研究中心 [3]安华农业保险研究所

出　　处：《经济研究》2010年第11期101-114,140,共15页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(批准号:70673009);辽宁省教育厅项目(2009A236);辽宁省教育厅人文社会科学研究基地项目(2009JD27)的资助

摘　　要：农业政策成功与否不仅取决于政策的实施环境,更主要取决于农民对政策刺激反应的强烈程度。为分析我国农业政策的实施效果,本文利用Nerlove提出的适应性预期模型对我国粮食生产调整能力及农业政策的影响效果进行实证研究。基于1995—2008年中国省际农业面板数据,利用动态面板的GMM方法分别估计了农业政策对小麦、稻谷、玉米作物播种面积、单位产量及总产量的影响,并对我国粮食生产调整能力及农业政策影响的长期效应进行了定量分析。实证结果表明,随着政府对农业投入的增加,我国粮食生产的调整能力逐渐增强,各项农业政策对粮食生产均具有显著正向影响,其中,农业支出政策和农村固定资产投资是拉动我国粮食产量增长的最重要因素。但预期价格水平对粮食产量的影响相对偏弱,市场经济的价格杠杆作用并不明显。The successful agricultural policies depend not only on the policy implementation environment, but also largely on farmers＇ response to policy stimulus intensity. In order to analyse the effects of China＇s agricultural policy, this paper uses adaptive expectations models proposed by Nerlove to study the adjustment capacity of China＇s food production and agricultural policies effects. Based on 1995--2008 China＇s provincial agricultural panel data, we estimate the influence coefficient of agricultural policies on acreage, yields and total production of wheat, rice, maize crop using dynamic panel GMM way. Furthermore, we analyze food production-adjustment ability and long-term effects of agricultural policies. The empirical results show that China＇s food production-adjustment ability gradually increases with government investment in agriculture, and the various agricultural policies have significantly positive effect on food production. The agricultural expenditure and rural fixed assets investment policy are the most important factors on China＇s food output growth. But it is relatively weak that expected orice level on food production,and the price leverage of market economy is not obvious.

关 键 词：粮食生产调整能力 农业政策 适应性预期模型 动态面板GMM方法 

分 类 号：F320[经济管理—产业经济]