基于动平均改进灰色模型的高边坡沉降变形预测  

Forecast for settlement of high slope based on improved dynamic average grey model

作　　者：张斌[1] 顾功开[2] 李超[1] 

机构地区：[1]长江空间信息技术工程有限公司,湖北武汉430010 [2]中国长江三峡集团公司向家坝工程建设部,四川宜宾644600

出　　处：《人民长江》2010年第20期56-59,共4页Yangtze River

基　　金：国家"十一五"科技支撑计划重点项目(2008BAC47B04)

摘　　要：介绍了灰色模型的基本原理,并对灰色模型算法进行重点阐述,结合边坡沉降的实际情况,考虑边坡沉降变形与温度变化呈现一定的周期性变形的特点,提出对原始观测数据采用动平均生成数列后,直接采用生成的数据建立灰色模型对边坡测点沉降位移进行预报。以三峡永久船闸高边坡为例,对动平均改进灰色模型算法编制了相应的预报模型程序,实现了边坡测点沉降变形预报功能,取得了较好的效果,与其他常规预测方法相比具有明显优势。We introduce the basic principle of grey model and focus on calculation method.In the combination of practical condition and with consideration of periodic features of slope settlement and temperature,it is suggested that data series should be generated from original observation data by dynamic average method first,and the grey model is established directly by the generated data series for slope forecast.Taking TGP permanent ship lock as example,by improved dynamic average grey model,the correlative program for forecast model is composed and satisfactory forecast for slope settlement is obtained with obvious advantage compared with other conventional forecast methods.

关 键 词：动平均 改进灰色模型 沉降位移预测 高边坡 

分 类 号：TV698[水利工程—水利水电工程]