煤与瓦斯突出预测动静态指标的灰色优选  

Grey Optimum Selection between Dynamic & Static Index of Coal and Gas Outburst Forecast

作　　者：陈鹏[1,2] 张科学[1,3] 魏明尧[1,2] 欧建春[1,2] 许福乐[1,2] 陈西华 

机构地区：[1]煤炭资源与安全开采国家重点实验室,江苏徐州市221008 [2]中国矿业大学安全工程学院,江苏徐州市221008 [3]中国矿业大学矿业工程学院,江苏徐州市221008 [4]永贵五凤煤业有限责任公司,贵州毕节市551600

出　　处：《矿业研究与开发》2010年第5期73-76,共4页Mining Research and Development

基　　金：国家"十一五"科技支撑计划项目(2007BAK29B01);国际科技合作项目(2008DFB70100);国家重点基础研究"973"计划项目(2005cb221505);教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划项目(NCET-06-0477)

摘　　要：为了确定工作面突出预测敏感指标,通过研究演马庄矿与谢一矿掘进工作面电磁辐射特征,将电磁辐射预测指标(电磁辐射强度E)与常规突出预测指标R值指标及钻屑指标Δh2、K1、S等进行对比,利用灰色系统理论进行指标优选,比较各指标灰色关联度大小,结果表明,电磁辐射预测指标的综合关联度大于常规指标,预测无突出危险准确率为100%,可以作为工作面突出预测指标。In order to determine the sensitive indicators used for forecast of coal and gas outburst in working face,the electromagnetic radiation characteristics of heading face in Yanmazhuang Mine and Xieyi Mine are researched,the intensity of electromagnetic emission（EME） E and the conventional forecasting indexes such as R value and drilling cuttings indexes Δh2,K1 and S were compared.The theory of gray system was used to compare the level of gray correlation degree of the forecasting indexes in order to achieve the optimum selection of indexes.The result indicated that the comprehensive correlation degree of EME index is higher than that of conventional indexes,its accuracy rate in forecasting non-outburst dangerousness is 100%,so it can be used as a primary index of outburst forecast.

关 键 词：突出预测 电磁辐射 R值指标 钻屑指标 灰色优选 

分 类 号：TD713[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]