基于蒙特卡罗模拟的污水处理BOT项目特许期决策模型  

A Decision Model of Concession Period for Build-Operate-Transfer Projects of Wastewater Treatment Based on Monte Carlo Simulation

作　　者：宋金波[1] 王东波[1] 宋丹荣[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学管理学院,辽宁大连116024

出　　处：《管理工程学报》2010年第4期93-99,共7页Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70702033);国家住房和城乡建设部软科学研究资助项目(2008-R3-5);大连理工大学人文社科基金资助项目(DUTHS2008303)

摘　　要：特许期是BOT项目特许经营协议中的关键参数之一。本文首先界定了污水处理BOT项目特许期的影响因素,以此为基础构建了一个带有收益约束条件的特许期决策模型,综合运用NPV与蒙特卡罗模拟方法对模型进行求解,根据大连市凌水河污水处理BOT项目的案例数据验证了该方法,并分别对有大修和无大修两种移交条件下的特许期区间进行了估计,为此类项目的特许期决策提供了一种可借鉴、可操作的方法。Concession period is one of key parameters in build-operate-transfer（BOT） contract.This paper first makes definition of the influencing factors of concession period in wastewater treatment projects.Based on it,a decision model is constructed under an income-constraint condition,and solutions are carried out by using NPV and Monte Carlo simulation.The method is certified by the data from the BOT project of Dalian Lingshui River wastewater treatment.The concession period interval is also estimated respectively under two transfer conditions of heavy repair and non-heavy repair.It provides an exercisable reference for concession period decision in terms of this type of projects.

关 键 词：BOT 特许期 污水处理 蒙特卡罗模拟 

分 类 号：F294.1[经济管理—国民经济]