美国撤军对伊拉克未来局势及在伊石油合作项目的影响  

The impact of U.S.coalition military withdrawal on Iraq's future,in particular on oil cooperation projects

作　　者：殷冬青[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油集团经济技术研究院

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2010年第10期24-28,共5页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：伊拉克战争之后,伊国内局势经历了三个发展阶段:美国直接控制阶段、"临时—过渡政府"管辖阶段和"立宪政府"管理阶段。美国发动伊拉克战争是为维护其自身的政治和经济利益。然而,美国虽然迅速颠覆了萨达姆政权,但时至今日仍然深陷战争泥潭不能自拔。出于中期选举的迫切需要,调整反恐战略重心、纠正"反恐"扩大化错误的需要,以及美国调整全球策略的需要,2010年8月31日,美国总统奥巴马正式宣布结束驻伊拉克美军作战任务。对于伊拉克安全局势来说,美军的作用是复杂和矛盾的。美国"撤而不离",未来仍将是稳定伊拉克局势的主要支柱力量。从安全风险来说,美国撤军对伊拉克石油合作项目影响不大,而且伊拉克仍将长期维持相关法律缺失的局面;从长远和战略的角度看,美国撤军将有利于外国石油公司与伊拉克进行合作。After the US coalition's invasion of Iraq,governance of Iraq entered three successive stages:direct control by the United States and coalition partners,administration by an Iraqi Interim Government and Transitional Government,andrule by a Constitutional Government.The U.S.coalition's war in Iraq serves its own political and economic interest.Although the United States coalition quickly over threw Saddam Hussein's regime,the US is still unable to exit the war.In light of the urgent need to read just the focus of the waron terrorism,face mid-term elections,and mount a global U.S.strategy,Barack Obama officially announced on August 31st,2010,the end of American coalition combat missions in Iraq.The U.S.army's security role in Iraq is conflicted.The United States‘withdrew without exiting’ from Iraq,but that will stabilize the situation there.Withdrawal by the U.S.army haslittle effect on the security risk in Iraqi oil cooperation projects.Despite central government management of Iraq's oil and gas industry,Iraq will continue to lack for some time to come laws governing the oil industry.So,from a strategic perspective,U.S.withdrawal will not disrupt even be conducive to foreign oil companies to cooperate with Iraq.

关 键 词：伊拉克 美国 撤军 油气合作 政治局势 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济]