中国入境旅游人数和外汇收入的CAR预测模型  

The CAR Forecasting Model of the Number of Overseas Visitor Arrivals and the Foreign Exchange Earning from International Tourism

作　　者：李春兰[1] 张丽娜[1] 乔均俭[1] 

机构地区：[1]河北农业大学理学院,河北保定071000

出　　处：《数理统计与管理》2010年第6期970-974,共5页Journal of Applied Statistics and Management

基　　金：河北省教育厅自然科学基金(2007122);河北省自然科学基金(E2008000357);河北农业大学非生命科学基金

摘　　要：分析1978-2007年我国入境旅游的统计资料,以我国零售商品物价指数为控制项,建立入境旅游人数、入境旅游过夜人数、入境旅游外国人人数、入境旅游港澳台人数和入境旅游外汇收入的时间序列模型,预测未来我国入境旅游的发展前景。In this paper, Chinese retail price index was used in CAR model as a control factor by analyzing the statistical data of Chinese inbound tourism. The future number of Chinese overseas visitor arrival, overnight tourists, foreigners, Chinese compatriots from Hong Kong and Macao and Talwan Province, foreign exchange earning from international tourism has been forecasted.

关 键 词：入境旅游 CAR模型 预测方程 

分 类 号：O212[理学—概率论与数理统计]