川滇地区调制/非调制地震短期震兆特征研究  

Short-term earthquake prediction in the region of Sichuan-Yunnan using method of modulated earthquake

作　　者：汪翠枝[1] 曹井泉[1] 郭洪丽[1] 张磊[1] 薛娜[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津市地震局,天津市河西区友谊路19号300201

出　　处：《中国地震》2010年第2期210-217,共8页Earthquake Research in China

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划):全球深部地球物理场及其非对称的动力作用与汶川地震的关系(2008CB425704)

摘　　要：对川滇地区进行调制/非调制地震有限时空扫描,提取调制小震具有显著差异的短期非稳态震兆图像,分析强震前调制小震的非稳态短期异常特征及预测效能,并计算震中附近地区的小震调制比时间序列。结果显示,调制地震方法在该地区MS≥6.0地震的短期预测中效果显著;汶川8.0级地震前,震区附近存在明显的调制小震空段短期震兆图像。The spatio-temporal scanning of the modulated or un-modulated earthquakes in the region of Sichuan-Yunnan helps obtain the short-term non-stationary seismic precursory images with significant difference for the analysis of the characteristic of non-stationary short-term seismic anomalies and the prediction efficiency of small earthquakes before a strong earthquake. Besides,small earthquake modulation ratios and near the region of epicenter are calculated and sorted by time. The results indicate that there is a significant effect using modulated earthquake method to predict earthquake with MS≥6. 0 in short time. Before the Wenchuan MS8. 0 earthquake,there were obvious short-term gap seismic precursory images of modulated small earthquake.

关 键 词：调制地震 非稳态 调制比 地震短期预测 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]